A MESSAGE FROM THE SECRETARY-GENERAL
The global economic crisis is not ‘over’ as some have begun to predict, but rather it has just started for hundreds of millions of people around the globe. The first ‘green shoots’ of recovery must not blind us to clear signals that a new type of crisis is spreading throughout the developing world. This crisis is the result of the multiplying effect of shock after shock. Populations already buffeted by highly volatile food and fuel prices now confront a deep economic recession. For some, these global shocks come on top of localized emergencies, such as natural disasters and conflicts. Without decisive action, this witch’s brew will push hundreds of millions of people back into poverty and crush the hopes of billions more who had dreamed of a better future. The Millennium Development Goals could recede in memory as the forgotten aspirations of a former era.
Who has been most affected by this crisis and how? How are they coping? What can we learn from emerging policy responses? Are there any red flags signaling future problems that we should try to address now? The full picture has yet to emerge.
This report summarizes analysis and information that the United Nations family and its partners have produced over the past year regarding the socio-economic impacts of the crisis on poor and vulnerable individuals and households. It starts from the ground up and seeks to translate what our statistics mean for the lives of real people. As such it complements existing studies that focus on macroeconomic trends or, alternatively, on in-depth case studies.
The following themes have emerged:
- No one expected the financial crisis to have affected lives so quickly and profoundly.
- The near poor are in danger of becoming the new poor. It is not the chronic poor who have been most affected by the crisis, but the near and working poor, whose lives had improved significantly over the previous decade.
- The informal sector’s ‘resilience’ to downturns is a myth. It has not cushioned the impact of the economic crisis.
- The clock is running out on the coping strategies of the vulnerable and poor. Many options, such as dipping into savings or selling assets, have been exhausted by previous crises or were non-existent in the first place. Now, families are surviving on borrowed time and mortgaging their future.
- Women and children are likely to bear the brunt of the crisis and carry the greatest burden of household adjustments over the short and long term.
As we look to the immediate future, we must watch for:
- Mounting pressures on governments and private philanthropic actors to reduce social spending, especially for public health and education. If this is allowed, the intergenerational transmission of poverty could dramatically increase.
- The onset of natural disasters such as droughts, floods and hurricanes, which can be the proverbial last straw for overstretched populations and governments.
- Thefurther spread and evolution of the H1N1 influenza pandemic to countries already beleaguered by the economic crisis. The erosion of peace dividends in countries emerging from conflicts, as foreign investors become more risk averse.
- Indicationsof increased social tensions, crime and violent outbreaks in communities worldwide.
Notwithstanding all the work currently underway to analyze the crisis’ impact, more than a year in, what we do not know overshadows what we know. We can discern a few emerging trends, but without real-time data
we are limited as to the conclusions we can draw about the impact of the economic crisis. The current snapshot is in shades of grey not full colour.
We must address these gaps in our knowledge if we are to design policies to avert, or at least mitigate, the impact of this and future crises. We must obtain real-time data that can be easily analyzed across sectors and address the policy questions that need answering. We must further improve our methodologies. For this reason, I am calling on the international community to work together to create a networked 21st Century global system for real-time monitoring of the impacts of this and future global crises on the most vulnerable and poor: a Global Impact and Vulnerability Alert System (GIVAS). This system will require time, effort and resources – but it is long overdue.
The voices of the vulnerable should compel us to act with urgency. I look forward to working with all partners to make GIVAS a reality.
BAN Ki-moon
Secretary-General of the United Nations
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