WATCH LIST FOR LEADERS

• Mounting pressures on governments and private philanthropic actors to reduce social spending, especially for public health and education. If this is allowed to take root, the intergenerational transmission of poverty could dramatically increase.
• The onset of natural disasters such as droughts, floods and hurricanes, which can be the last straw breaking the back of overtaxed populations and governments.
• Early indications of the spread of infectious diseases like the HIN1 influenza pandemic. The increasing severity of this pandemic may result in catastrophes for countries hit by the economic crisis and already encumbered by high existing disease burdens and weak public health services.
• The erosion of peace dividends in countries emerging from conflicts. Early signs indicate that foreign investors are pulling out capital and scaling down investments in post-conflict countries. Job creation – crucial for economic recovery and getting ex-combatants off the streets – will be dealt a blow. Huge investments in returning to normalcy could vanish into thin air.
• Early indications of increased social tensions, crime and violent outbreaks in communities around the world.